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OK, this
is where we have the opportunity to embarrass ourselves to the
greatest extent possible. We ask that you familiarize
yourself with our DISCLAIMER before
taking even one step closer. We present this page strictly
for informational purposes. It is a recap of what we
are actually doing in managed accounts. We ask that you
please not email us with specific questions on any securities
listed as we simply won't have time to answer them sufficiently.
Under no circumstances is
information presented on this page to be used or considered as an
offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy
securities. From time to time, Contrary Investor officers or
employees of Contrary Investor may, to the extent permitted by
law, have a position or otherwise be interested in any
transaction, in any investments (including derivatives) directly
or indirectly which are the subject of this report. This
report is provided solely for readers of Contrary Investor who are
expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance
on this report. Neither Contrary Investor or any officer or
employee of Contrary Investor accepts any liability whatsoever for
any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this
report or its contents. |
| In
the subscriber portion of ContraryInvestor.com, investment action
we have taken in live client accounts is documented with updates
each Tuesday and Thursday evening. Although it cannot be
considered real time, actions are posted either on the day
of actual execution. Besides, we are not day traders as we
consciously expect to be in selected investments for a reasonable
period of time. As you can see in the examples below, we are not
initiating action each and every week. We clearly try to
pick our spots. We have no problem waiting for Mr. Market to
give us opportunities. The subscriber portion of the site is
complete with very brief explanations for all actions taken (for better or
for worse). |
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EQUITIES
So, just what did we do in
calendar years 2000-01? The following:
|
Stock |
Action Taken |
Date Purchased |
Cost |
Date Sold |
Proceeds |
Gain/(Loss)* |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CPWM |
Bought |
1/26/00 |
$ 18
7/16 |
3/23/00 |
$ 29
3/8 |
59.3
% |
| PFE |
Bought |
2/25/00 |
32 3/8 |
11/30 |
46 |
42.1 % |
| WM |
Bought |
3/3/00 |
23 1/8 |
10/09 |
40
1/16 |
73.2 % |
| MRK |
Bought |
3/31/00 |
62 1/8 |
11/30 |
96 |
54.5
% |
| JNJ |
Bought |
4/3/00 |
72 1/4 |
11/30 |
102 |
41.2
% |
| KPA |
Bought |
4/12/00 |
8 5/8 |
2/7/01 |
11.94 |
38.4 % |
| RSG |
Bought |
4/14/00 |
12
3/16 |
1/29/01 |
15.72 |
29 % |
| ELN |
Bought |
4/20/00 |
43
11/16 |
12/4/01 |
44.05 |
0.8 % |
| SBC |
Bought |
5/5/00 |
43 |
2/28/01 |
48.125 |
12.0 % |
| PSFT |
Bought |
5/12/00 |
14 |
8/30 |
28
15/16 |
106.6
% |
| BMY |
Bought |
6/2/00 |
50 7/8 |
11/30 |
71.5 |
40.5
% |
| GDT |
Bought |
6/7/00 |
46 |
Holding |
|
|
| MCK |
Bought |
6/14/00 |
21
15/16 |
Holding |
|
|
| HLIT |
Bought |
6/15/00 |
36 1/4 |
1/24/01 |
10.25 |
(71.7)
% |
| CCL |
Bought |
8/4/00 |
19 5/8 |
12/21/00 |
25 3/4 |
31.2 % |
| IBM |
Sold Short |
10/18/00 |
92 |
8/31/00 |
132
1/64 |
30.3 % |
| QQQ
Put Jan '01 $70 Strike |
Bought |
8/31/00 |
13/16 |
10/12 |
4 3/4
avg. |
485 % |
| XRX
** |
Bought |
9/11/00 |
15 3/8 |
Holding
|
|
|
| LEA |
Bought |
9/25/00 |
20
7/16 |
11/1 |
27
1/16 |
32.4 % |
| STEI |
Bought |
9/25/00 |
2 3/8 |
Holding |
|
|
| WCOM |
Bought |
9/25/00 |
26.125 |
Holding |
|
|
| CHV |
Bought |
1/24/01 |
79.50 |
Holding |
|
|
| SO |
Bought |
2/6/01 |
17.857 |
Holding |
|
|
| MIR |
Spun Off From SO |
4/2/01 |
28.43 |
Holding |
|
|
| MRK |
Bought |
3/22/01 |
68.25 |
Holding |
|
|
| PFE |
Bought |
3/22/01 |
35.60 |
Holding |
|
|
| JNJ |
Bought |
3/27/01 |
41.075 |
Holding |
|
|
| PDE |
Bought |
6/26/01 |
20.80 |
Holding |
|
|
| YUM |
Bought |
6/26/01 |
43.55 |
11/6/01 |
52.25 |
20 % |
| CPN |
Bought |
12/12/01 |
12.75 |
12/19/01 |
15.29 |
19.9 % |
| MIR |
Addition |
12/12/01 |
17.80 |
Holding |
|
|
(* Gains and Losses
only address principal movement. No input is made for
dividends)
(**XEROX sold at year end only in taxable accounts needing tax losses
to offset capital gains. We simply could not bear to
part with WCOM at year end prices.)
In 2000, we focused largely on defensive issues
as the wreckage in TNT issues (tech, Net, telecom) spread across
the market. Individual opportunities in former disasters
like PSFT were an exception. Likewise, late in the year, the
momentum like movements of institutional money into groups like
the big pharma's became a little bit too much. When former
tech-bull Street strategists started recommending the big pharma's
after they had already shot up 40-50%, that was all we
needed to hear. We simply got lucky in 2000 by not having
many losers. As you know, over the long term, the investment
game is won by not losing.
We were rather quiet in 2001. Holding existing positions and
adding to the energy sector a touch. The wreckage in this
sector at year end 2001 looks to be offering some great bounce
candidates. As 2001 wore on, we came to the conclusion that
looking for a spot to buy for true long term holds may be a bit of
a futile effort. We are becoming more convinced by the day
that active management will be the only way to put points on the
board over the next 3-5 years, and possibly a lot longer.
Long term buy and hold bull markets simply do not begin from
current valuation levels. Quite the opposite. The
world is not necessarily coming to an end, but the potential
success of the buy and hold investment strategy sure seems to
changing. We expect substantially heightened activity in
2002. Preserving capital in 2000-01 may have been a noble endeavor,
but making money ahead will require heightened activity in
management, a certain sense of timing, and the ability to apply
flexibility in thinking.
As of year end, we were still holding equities marked as such. |
|
FIXED
INCOME And ASSET ALLOCATION
During 2001 we lost virtually all of
the callable 7-8% coupon government agency debt (FHLB) we had
purchased in prior years. We implemented a blending approach
in 2001. A portion of fixed income in GNMA's, a portion in
short maturity (2-3 yr.) medium to high quality corporate paper,
2-5 year callable govt. agency debt, and finally a rifle shot
purchase of our first junk rated debt in years - Tricon Global
four year paper priced at a slight discount to yield 7
3/4%. Late in the year as the yields spiked on Treasury
paper we went ahead and bought a little 7 year callable FHLB debt
(2 years of call protection) at 6.25%. As you know, FHLB
paper offers interest free of State taxation.
Our thought at yearend is that bonds may have one more push higher
on prices, but by and large, the bond bull market of the last two
decades is over. Return ahead will largely be driven by
coupon return. IF we get comfortable with a modicum of
economic recovery ahead, we will begin adding to high yield debt
in bite sized pieces. Both funds and special situations such
as Tricon. At
year end 2001, asset allocation was 25% cash, 30% bonds, and 45%
equities. We view cash as an anomaly given current bond call
activity. |


Copyright ContraryInvestor.com © 2000
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