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    OK, this is where we have the opportunity to embarrass ourselves to the greatest extent possible.  We ask that you familiarize yourself with our DISCLAIMER before taking even one step closer.  We present this page strictly for informational purposes.  It is a recap of what we are actually doing in managed accounts.  We ask that you please not email us with specific questions on any securities listed as we simply won't have time to answer them sufficiently.  

     Under no circumstances is information presented on this page to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities.  From time to time, Contrary Investor officers or employees of Contrary Investor may, to the extent permitted by law, have a position or otherwise be interested in any transaction, in any investments (including derivatives) directly or indirectly which are the subject of this report.  This report is provided solely for readers of Contrary Investor who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report.  Neither Contrary Investor or any officer or employee of Contrary Investor accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.     

 

     In the subscriber portion of ContraryInvestor.com, investment action we have taken in live client accounts is documented with updates each Tuesday and Thursday evening.  Although it cannot be considered real time, actions are posted either on the day of actual execution.  Besides, we are not day traders as we consciously expect to be in selected investments for a reasonable period of time.  As you can see in the examples below, we are not initiating action each and every week.  We clearly try to pick our spots.  We have no problem waiting for Mr. Market to give us opportunities.  The subscriber portion of the site is complete with very brief explanations for all actions taken (for better or for worse).

 

 EQUITIES

   So, just what did we do in calendar years 2000-01?  The following:  

Stock

Action Taken

Date Purchased

Cost

Date Sold

Proceeds

Gain/(Loss)*

             
CPWM

Bought

1/26/00

$ 18 7/16

3/23/00

$ 29 3/8

 59.3 %

PFE

Bought

2/25/00

32 3/8

11/30

46 

42.1 % 

WM

Bought

3/3/00

23 1/8

10/09

40 1/16

73.2 % 

MRK

Bought

3/31/00

62 1/8

11/30

96 

 54.5 %

JNJ

Bought

4/3/00

72 1/4

11/30

102 

 41.2 %

KPA

Bought

4/12/00

8 5/8

2/7/01

11.94 

38.4 % 

RSG

Bought

4/14/00

12 3/16

 1/29/01

15.72 

29 % 

ELN

Bought

4/20/00

43 11/16

 12/4/01

44.05 

0.8 % 

SBC

Bought

5/5/00

43

 2/28/01

48.125 

12.0 % 

PSFT

Bought

5/12/00

14

8/30

28 15/16

 106.6 %

BMY

Bought

6/2/00

50 7/8

 11/30

 71.5

 40.5 %

GDT

Bought

6/7/00

46

 Holding

  

 

MCK

Bought

6/14/00

21 15/16

 Holding

 

 

HLIT 

Bought

6/15/00

36 1/4

 1/24/01

10.25 

(71.7) % 

CCL

Bought

8/4/00

19 5/8

12/21/00 

25 3/4 

31.2 % 

IBM

Sold Short

10/18/00 

92 

8/31/00

132 1/64

30.3 %

QQQ Put Jan '01 $70 Strike

Bought

8/31/00

13/16

 10/12

4 3/4 avg. 

485 %

XRX **

Bought

9/11/00

15 3/8

Holding

      
LEA

Bought

9/25/00

20 7/16

11/1 

27 1/16 

32.4 % 

STEI

Bought

9/25/00

2 3/8

Holding

  

  

WCOM Bought 9/25/00 26.125 Holding    
CHV Bought 1/24/01 79.50 Holding    
SO Bought 2/6/01 17.857 Holding    
MIR Spun Off From SO 4/2/01 28.43 Holding    
MRK Bought 3/22/01 68.25 Holding    
PFE Bought 3/22/01 35.60 Holding    
JNJ Bought 3/27/01 41.075 Holding    
PDE Bought 6/26/01 20.80 Holding    
YUM Bought 6/26/01 43.55 11/6/01 52.25 20 %
CPN Bought 12/12/01 12.75 12/19/01 15.29  19.9 % 
MIR

Addition

12/12/01

17.80

 Holding

  

  

(* Gains and Losses only address principal movement.  No input is made for dividends)

(**XEROX sold at year end only in taxable accounts needing tax losses
 to offset capital gains.  We simply could not bear to part with WCOM at year end prices.)

     In 2000, we focused largely on defensive issues as the wreckage in TNT issues (tech, Net, telecom) spread across the market.  Individual opportunities in former disasters like PSFT were an exception.  Likewise, late in the year, the momentum like movements of institutional money into groups like the big pharma's became a little bit too much.  When former tech-bull Street strategists started recommending the big pharma's after they had already shot up 40-50%, that was all we needed to hear.  We simply got lucky in 2000 by not having many losers.  As you know, over the long term, the investment game is won by not losing.

     We were rather quiet in 2001.  Holding existing positions and adding to the energy sector a touch.  The wreckage in this sector at year end 2001 looks to be offering some great bounce candidates.  As 2001 wore on, we came to the conclusion that looking for a spot to buy for true long term holds may be a bit of a futile effort.  We are becoming more convinced by the day that active management will be the only way to put points on the board over the next 3-5 years, and possibly a lot longer.  Long term buy and hold bull markets simply do not begin from current valuation levels.  Quite the opposite.  The world is not necessarily coming to an end, but the potential success of the buy and hold investment strategy sure seems to changing.  We expect substantially heightened activity in 2002.  Preserving capital in 2000-01 may have been a noble endeavor, but making money ahead will require heightened activity in management, a certain sense of timing, and the ability to apply flexibility in thinking.  

     As of year end, we were still holding equities marked as such.  

 

 

FIXED INCOME And ASSET ALLOCATION

   During 2001 we lost virtually all of the callable 7-8% coupon government agency debt (FHLB) we had purchased in prior years.  We implemented a blending approach in 2001.  A portion of fixed income in GNMA's, a portion in short maturity (2-3 yr.) medium to high quality corporate paper, 2-5 year callable govt. agency debt, and finally a rifle shot purchase of our first junk rated debt in years - Tricon Global four year paper priced at a slight discount to yield 7 3/4%.  Late in the year as the yields spiked on Treasury paper we went ahead and bought a little 7 year callable FHLB debt (2 years of call protection) at 6.25%.  As you know, FHLB paper offers interest free of State taxation.

     Our thought at yearend is that bonds may have one more push higher on prices, but by and large, the bond bull market of the last two decades is over.  Return ahead will largely be driven by coupon return.  IF we get comfortable with a modicum of economic recovery ahead, we will begin adding to high yield debt in bite sized pieces.  Both funds and special situations such as Tricon.

     At year end 2001, asset allocation was 25% cash, 30% bonds, and 45% equities.  We view cash as an anomaly given current bond call activity.

  

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